Shelby County at South Warren

[seams]

South Warren has not had to travel yet in the playoffs. A win means they have to travel next week.... all the way to WKU...

Do the Spartans stay undefeated? Is this their year?

 

[tommy2tone]

This will be their biggest challenge of the season and playing for state this week. Going to be a low scoring affair. How low will depend on the weather

 

[macdon]

Looking at each team objectively using the MaxPreps computer rankings for Kentucky.

South Warren is #8 overall and Shelby is #16.

I ranked their respective schedules based on the same MaxPreps statewide ratings.

South Warren's schedule is slightly tougher than Shelby's. If you pick the top six opponents of each team South Warren's advantage in strength of schedule widens slightly but it is not significant. SW's top six average rank is 43.8 and Shelby's is 48.5.

The difference shows up on the field with those six games. South averaged allowing 4.8 pt/game and Shelby averaged giving up 19.5 and that includes a shut out of Collins. Shelby gave up 30 points to Garrard County in a one point win. The closest teams to Garrard County on SW's schedule are North Hardin and Franklin-Simpson. South allowed 7 points in three games.

Had Shelby County not blown out John Hardin 44-14 last Friday night I don't think anyone would be giving Shelby much of a chance in Richpond Frday night. Shelby County has a good rushing attack but it has not shown anything like the power is did against JH.

I'm sure Shelby is a solid team but they have not faced a rushing defense like the one they will see Friday night. South's defense aids the offense and makes their offense better. I hope this game has a solid experienced set of officials because I have a feeling it has the chance of getting quite chippy.

I'm picking SW something like 35-7 or 35-14.

 

[tommy2tone]

You mentioned this before at other places. Why do you think this game will get chippy?
Shelbys offense has been moving the ball like that all year.
I started talking Shelby after the Back to back wins over Collins and spencer and picked them to win the region and give SW a battle.
Regardless of the max prep rankings, Shelby's schedule IMO was stronger than that of SW.
I will give them Central Hardin and they beat CH when they were banged up and not the same team that is playing now.
District 2 was tuff to play in week after week and then Shelby went on the road and to beat 5A regional finalist S. Oldham.

 

[macdon]

I have not seen Shelby Co play. To answer your question.

 

[tommy2tone]

I am beginning to think this game will be a war.

 

[macdon]

Depends on what the Rockets are willing to put up with.

 

[Adopted Purple]

South Warren by 14 at home. Their defense is the best in 4A.